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The cocoa market has seen unprecedented volatility, with prices soaring above $12,000 per metric ton in December 2024, driven by climate disruptions and supply constraints in West Africa. Speculative trading intensified this volatility, while new US tariffs on chocolate imports further strained supply chains and raised consumer prices. Major chocolate manufacturers are now facing rising ingredient costs, prompting potential price increases for consumers.
UBS executives Sergio Ermotti and Colm Kelleher were notably absent from Zurich's Sechseläuten festival, missing a key opportunity for lobbying against regulation. While other prominent figures, including federal councillors and business leaders, participated, only Patrick O. Müller represented UBS, walking with the Zurich Women's Guild. This absence highlights a significant oversight in the bank's lobbying strategy.
Oil prices fell as tensions within the Opec+ alliance grew, with Kazakhstan prioritizing national interests over collective production goals. The US stock market showed mixed signals, with the Dow Jones expected to decline amid concerns over tariffs and interest rates, while Alphabet's quarterly report boosted investor confidence. The Nasdaq 100 also retreated slightly after a recent recovery.
The Swiss stock market fell by 2.09% amid escalating trade tensions following U.S. tariffs, with the SMI index dropping to 12,324.76 points. The technology sector was particularly hard hit, with Logitech down 12%, while UBS in the financial sector also faced a 5% decline. Defensive stocks like Nestlé and Novartis provided some support, but overall losses were significant.
Major brands are cautiously returning to X, previously Twitter, driven by fear of public backlash and potential legal repercussions from Elon Musk. While ad spending is slowly recovering, it remains significantly lower than pre-2022 levels, with some companies like American Express cutting their budgets by 80%. The platform's advertising landscape is shifting, with smaller brands filling the void left by larger advertisers amid ongoing legal pressures and political influences.
The Swiss stock market remained in the red as investors reacted to the US's announcement of a 25% tariff on imported cars, signaling a potential escalation in the global trade war. Major indices in Europe and Asia followed suit, with significant declines in automotive stocks. The SMI was down 1.27%, with only six of the thirty leading stocks showing gains, including Sandoz and Novartis.
With low interest rates likely to persist, the stock market is poised for growth as companies can borrow cheaply to invest. However, geopolitical tensions and uncertainties may lead to volatility in 2025, making high-dividend stocks a safer investment choice for stable returns. The Swiss equity market, known for its defensive nature, features companies like Nestlé and Roche that offer attractive dividends, providing a buffer against market fluctuations.
Nestlé S.A., the world's leading food group, reports its sales breakdown by product family: powdered and liquid beverages (26.9%), pet food (20.7%), pharmaceutical and nutrition products (16.6%), prepared dishes and seasonings (11.7%), dairy and ice creams (11.4%), chocolates and cookies (9.2%), and packaged waters (3.5%). Geographically, sales are concentrated in the United States and Canada (35.2%), followed by China (5.9%), Brazil (4.4%), and several European countries, with Switzerland at 1.2% and the UK at 4%.
UBS maintains a neutral stance on Nestlé, keeping its price target at 80 Swiss francs. The firm anticipates a 2.4% organic growth in Q1, primarily driven by a 1.7% increase in prices, while currency fluctuations are expected to reduce EPS by 2% for FY 2025-2026. Nestlé has reaffirmed its 2025 guidance, projecting improved organic sales growth and a UTOP margin of 16% or more due to growth investments.
UBS has maintained a "Neutral" rating for Nestlé SA, setting a target price of 80 francs ahead of the first quarter results. Analyst Guillaume Delmas has increased the organic growth estimate for the food group, although it remains below consensus expectations. The company’s shares are currently priced at 93.42 EUR, reflecting a decline of 0.64%.
Nestlé S.A.
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The information provided herein is generated by experimental artificial intelligence and is for informational purposes only.
cocoa market volatility impacts prices and consumer behavior in chocolate industry
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